Dustin Dopirak,Zion BrownIndianapolis Star
INDIANAPOLIS -- Rather than try to predict the Indiana Pacers’ picks AND 29 other NBA teams, IndyStar’s Pacers Insider Dustin Dopirak and intern Zion Brown will play the role of the team’s scouts and team president Kevin Pritchard.ESPN's mock draft simulator makes the rest of the picks and, when the Pacers come on the clock, Dopirak and Brown weigh the options then make the picks based on who’s available.
Dopirak: The Pacers' draft position is a lot less interesting than it was a year ago when they were holding the No. 7 pick as well as four other choices and a lot of cap space, but that's obviously a sign that the franchise is in much better health. With the imminent signing of Pascal Siakam to a four-year $189.5 million deal they have the entire starting five from the team that reached the Eastern Conference finals under contract through 2024-25. Their second unit is almost entirely under contract too and they might bring that whole group back if they can re-sign restricted free agent forward Obi Toppin and if backup/third string center Jalen Smith exercises his player option. Even if they lose both, they still have Jarace Walker and Isaiah Jackson available to step into those two spots.
Pacers news: Pacers, Pascal Siakam to agree to 4-year max contract on July 6
Still, they do have three second-round picks at Nos. 36, 49 and 50 and they seem to be using Ben Sheppard as a model for what to do with those. In pre-draft workouts, they've been looking almost exclusively at experienced college players. Of the 36 guys they've looked at, 29 had three years experience as a college starter and the ones who didn't were almost all European pros. UCLA center Adem Bona was the only college player who didn't start three years at some level and he started all but one of his games in two seasons with the Bruins.
So let's start there, Zion. Do you think the approach they seem to be taking through workouts will be the one they follow through the draft? And should they be looking for experienced high-floor, low-ceiling guys at this spot or do you think they should be taking bigger risks?
Brown: It feels like this team is content with drafting in the second round. Not only did the Pacers work out more experienced players, but the players the organization worked out were all projected to be selected in the 30s or later, so the only way I'd see Indiana trading into the first round is if it gets word that someone they want at 36 may get picked late on Wednesday. I think the Pacers follow through with what they showed throughout workouts.
I think experienced, high-floor guys should be the way to go at 36, given this front office's success getting Andrew Nembhard and Sheppard in this range over the past two drafts. The Pacers have shown that they have a good eye for players in this range, so why move off of that? Once you get to picks 49 and 50, if there's a talented one- or two-year college player who's slipped that far, I could see Indiana taking that risk.
Dopirak: I'm in agreement, in large part because the Pacers had a hard time finding enough minutes for their lottery pick last year, so there will probably be even less time to develop a high-ceiling player who slips this far. Jarace Walker isn't nearly as raw as the rest of the basketball world thinks he is right now, it was just too important for the Pacers to win games for them to leave him out there to sink or swim. Anyone the Pacers take at 36, much less 49 or 50 is going to have to be OK with not having a lot of playing time early. Ben Sheppard played in just 18 of the first 40 games but because of his experience he was ready when called upon. The No. 36 pick will have to take a similar approach as it will probably require trades, injuries or something else to open up a hole for them to go through.
What are your thoughts on positional priority? Again, there isn't really a hole in the roster, so these guys will start deep on the depth chart, but do you think it makes more sense to focus on a fourth point guard, more wing depth, or center depth behind Myles Turner, Isaiah Jackson and Smith, who might be gone soon?
Brown: In today's NBA, I don't think it's ever a bad idea to add wing depth, no matter how much you think you have. Remember when Aaron Nesmith fouled out in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals and Andrew Nembhard (unsuccessfully) guarded Jayson Tatum in overtime? I'm sure this team would like to avoid situations like that going forward. In a league that prioritizes wings -- and a conference that Tatum and Jaylen Brown just ran through -- getting deeper at that position is never a bad idea.
While Jalen Smith would be a big loss if he heads elsewhere in free agency, that still leaves Myles Turner and Isaiah Jackson as full-time centers. Pascal Siakam and Obi Toppin have both played center in spurts throughout their careers. We didn't see it much (if at all) in 2023-24, but I felt Jarace Walker was capable of giving center minutes. Long story short, I think this team has plenty of options down low regardless of if Smith stays in Indiana or not.
Dopirak: I mostly agree, and there are guys I have in my mind as potential picks who can play any position 1-3 and that covers the point guard issue as well as the wing issue. But I do think if they know Jalen Smith is out, a third true center has to be a priority. In the playoffs the Pacers could frequently get by with Siakam and Toppin playing interchangeable 4 and 5 and there are definitely minutes and situations where they should try that more. But you also don't want to wear Siakam out over the course of 82 games, so I do think when you're playing true, two-unit, 10-man rotation ball you'll want a third guy available for when Jackson gets into foul trouble. (Which is not an infrequent occurrence.) If Smith leaves, I would -- were I Pacers management -- want Jackson to feel confident as the backup, because the guy's role has been constantly changed around throughout his career. But I don't think he'll be threatened by a second-round rookie.
Anyway, let's get this simulation started. Going to take me a minute to type all these out, which may simulate what it's like to have to wait a whole day for Round 2 ...
Simulation:1. Hawks - Zaccharie Risacher. 2. Wizards - Alex Sarr. 3. Rockets - Reed Sheppard. 4. Spurs - Stephon Castle. 5. Pistons - Donovan Clingan. 6. Hornets - Matas Buzelis. 7. Trail Blazers - Cody Willilams. 8. Spurs - Rob Dillingham. 9. Grizzlies - Nikola Topic. 10. Jazz - Dalton Knecht. 11. Bulls - Ron Holland. 12. Thunder - Jared McCain. 13 Kings - Devin Carter. 14. Trail Blazers - Ja'Kobe Walter. 15. Heat- Tidjane Salaun. 16. 76ers. - Tristan Da Silva. 17. Lakers - Kyle Filipowski. 18. Magic - Yves Missi. 19. Raptors - Carlton Carrington. 20. Cavaliers - Zach Edey. 21. Pelicans -Kel'el Ware. 22. Suns - Johnny Furphy. 23. Bucks - Ryan Dunn. 24. Knicks - Tyler Kolek. 25. Knicks - Terrance Shannon. 26. Wizards -Tyler Smith. 27. Timberwolves - Isaiah Collier. 28. Nuggets - DaRon Holmes. 29. Jazz - Kyshawn George. 30. Celtics - Jaylon Tyson. 31. Raptors -Baylor Scheierman. 32. Jazz - Bobi Klintman. 33. Bucks - AJ Johnson. 34. Trail Blazers Trey Alexander. 35. Spurs -Cameron Christie.
Dopirak: So before we get to the Pacers' pick here, let's look at what we have above. These simulations are only ever going to be so much of a science, and I think there are some players in there who are not necessarily good fits with the teams it has selecting them. That said, feel like most of them are going in or close to the range I'd expect and this is a pretty good indication of what might be on the board when the Pacers pick.
So Zion, let's first talk about the local guys who come off the board here in Zach Edey and Kel'El Ware at No. 20 and No. 21. I don't think those teams are good fits, as the Cavaliers already have Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley and will probably be looking to change styles under new coach Kenny Atkinson. But what are your thoughts as to this general range for these two guys?
Brown: Well, I'm not sure how legitimate the smoke is, but there have been quite a few rumors that Jarrett Allen has played his last game in a Cavs uniform. I don't think Edey would come in to start either way, as Mobley would likely shift to the starting center spot if Allen is traded, but I could see the intrigue. Tristan Thompson was Cleveland's backup five in the playoffs, so Edey could be an upgrade.
Ware to New Orleans also has intrigue. Valanciunas just turned 32 and is a free agent. As talented as Zion Williamson is, finding the right center to play alongside a 6-6 power forward who doesn't take 3s and is a questionable defender is challenging. You know who does take 3s and was All-Defense in the Big Ten? Kel'el Ware. So, like Edey in Cleveland --- when looking at the Pelicans for what they might be instead of what they currently are --- there may be a spot for Ware on that team.
Overall, Ware's range seems to be anywhere from the mid/late lottery to the bottom of the first round. He could be a Derek Lively-esque fit, but there are questions about his motor that I don't think existed with Lively. Edey has the motor and offensive skills but taking him means an organization has to trust that he won't be a pitiful NBA defender. I don't see him being a lottery pick, but I'd be shocked if Edey isn't a first-rounder after his past two seasons in West Lafayette.
Dopirak: That's a good point. Definitely think Ware's a better fit for New Orleans than Edey is for Cleveland. Just think they're going to want to play uptempo in Cleveland, especially if they are going to move Allen. Seems like the general approach is based on the idea that the slow-down game under J.B. Bickerstaff didn't work and they have to go another direction. (I personally thought they were pretty good, but that's just me.) But big picture, also agreed. Motor really does matter in this league and Ware's not going to make it far if he doesn't show one, but his skill set really fits the NBA game. And yeah, Edey has to go to a team that is comfortable playing a lot of drop coverage in pick-and-roll, but he's come a long way in a number of regards and the size is just so hard to replicate.
Who do we like for the Pacers at No. 36? You go first.
Brown: I'm going to go with Harrison Ingram out of North Carolina. The Pacers brought Ingram in to work out on June 9, but a blow to the head kept him from participating. After two years at Stanford, the 2021 McDonald's All-American went to UNC and set career highs in scoring, rebounding and shooting (from the field and from deep). Ingram played his role as the third-leading scorer on an exceptional Tar Heels squad well. His jump from a 31.9% 3-point shooter to 38.5% was crucial for his NBA outlook.
Ingram isn't the best leaper or sprinter, but he's 6-5 with a 7-0 wingspan, and he held his own defending other strong wings in 2023-24. Ingram is smart and experienced, which is what the Pacers prioritize. I think the front office will have a tough time passing up Ingram if he's there at 36. What say you?
Dopirak: I like that pick. Thought it said a lot for him that he showed up for the workout with the Pacers even though he had a cut over his eye that required stitches and kept him off the floor. He knew the importance of making a good impression. He's got a good combination of size and shooting and even if he just makes them a little bit better defensively that helps. The other two guys I really like at this spot are Dillon Jones of Weber State and Nikola Djurisic from Serbia. Djurisic made big strides this season after going back to Serbia, averaging a career high 14.4 points per game for KK Megabasket -- which some may remember as the team IU played several years ago in The Bahamas exhibition -- and Jones won Big Sky Player of the Year honors this year. Obviously, the Big Sky is not exactly the Big Ten, but he's shown out well at the Combine and 20.8 points, 9.8 rebounds and 5.2 assists shows a pretty good combination of size, athleticism skill regardless of where in Division I you put those numbers up. But I'm in agreement we go with Ingram here.
Pacers pick: Harrison Ingram, forward, North Carolina
So let's throw his name in there and crank up the simulation again...
Simulation: 37. Timberwolves -- Kevin McCullar. 38. Knicks Melvin Ajinca. 39. Grizzlies Pacome Dadiet. 40. Trail Blazers -- Reece Beekman. 41. - Isaac Jones. 42. Hornets - N'Faly Dante. 43. Heat - P.J. Hall. 44. Rockets - Tristen Newton. 45. Kings - Antonio Reeves. 46. Clippers Juan Nunez. 47. Magic - K.J. Simpson. 48. Kings Blake Hinson.
Dopirak: Not gonna lie, there were a couple of names there I was hoping were still going to be on the board, so I guess that makes this a better simulation than I was expecting. McCullar is a guy I should have mentioned earlier because I think he'd be a good fit as a do-everything wing with five years college experience at 6-6, 205 with the ability to score, create, rebound and defend. Really like Antonio Reeves as a shooter and I think Tristen Newton is the embodiment of what the Pacers want here. All-American, MOP of the Big East and NCAA Tournaments. 6-5, 200-pound point guard who was second on the team in rebounding. Having those guys off the board makes this a little tougher.
So first question I have to pose to you -- mostly because my editor, Nat Newell, is making me for shameless reasons -- do we dare take Bronny James at No. 49 or 50?
Brown: Unfortunately for Nat, I don't see it. James only worked out for the Lakers and Suns, which his agent Rich Paul said was "by design." Paul also said James won't take a two-way deal, which is likely all the Pacers would give to players drafted in these spots. This would be the biggest shock of the night, and I just can't envision a world where it makes sense.
Dopirak: It would make Indianapolis the center of the Hot Take Universe as if we don't have enough from the Caitlin Clark Discoursealready. But yeah, and that's one of the things that I guess concerns me about this whole process it that I think Bronny could really benefit from G League time on a two-way deal, and that we -- as the basketball world -- really need to be normalizing the G League anyway as a place players get better. The only way the Pacers could make this make sense for them would be drafting him as an almost hostage taking concept to see if they could bilk LeBron and the Lakers for something, but something tells me the long-term costs there outweigh the benefits.
Let's make these last two picks, and for the purposes of the discussion, let's imagine we're taking guys to actually put them on the roster rather than stashing them or even contemplating whether they'd take a two-way deal, shall we? In that case, I say we go with Houston's Jamal Shead and Adem Bona of UCLA so we cover those bases. Shead was Defensive Player of the Year in two different conferences in his last two seasons, a consensus All-American and Big 12 Player of the Year this year. Just an absolute hawk on the ball who has been the driving force for one of the stingiest defenses in Division I. His defensive style fits in well with what the Pacers did in the playoffs, defending ball-handlers 94 feet, and he's a sharp ball hander they could use as a fourth option. And with those two guys in the fold, it makes sense here to address the potential issue at the 5 with a rangy athletic shot-blocker in Bona. He's a touch raw on offense, but he's got a wingspan over 7-3 and a 40-inch max vertical.
Brown: You make an excellent point about Shead's capabilities as a 94-feet defender. The obvious caveat to his game is the shooting concerns (29.6% on 3s in four years at Houston). A less obvious issue -- when regarding the Pacers -- is the style Houston plays at. Houston has consistently been in the 300s nationally in pace under Kelvin Sampson, while the Pacers were second in the NBA in pace this year. That might've impacted Jarace Walker's playing time as a rookie, and while Shead could help conceal Tyrese Haliburton's defensive warts, I don't know how he'd fit with Haliburton on the other end. I'd be curious to know how Shead performed in the transition drills during his pre-draft workout in Indiana on May 31.
I really like the Bona pick. I admittedly didn't subject my eyes to UCLA's team often this year, but when I watched Bona play as a freshman on the Bruins' 2022-23 squad that went 31-6, I felt he was effective as an athletic, energetic big man. His efficiency didn't decline too much with a larger role this year, so I like taking that shot. Bona could maybe be Isaiah Jackson lite if Jackson leaves in free agency next summer.
The one guy I think could be interesting in this spot is UConn's Cam Spencer. The Pacers' offense is all about quickly reading and reacting to defenses, and UConn did that better than anyone in college basketball. Those who watched closely saw Spencer's impact was more than his 14.3 points per game. Spencer knew exactly what to do on and off the ball for UConn, and he was often their most vocal player. I'm not sure if the 24-year-old can hold up on the defensive end against the world's best athletes. Otherwise, he'd be off the board by now. The Pacers had stretches in the second half of the year when they missed Buddy Hield's movement and shooting. If they're looking to regain that, Spencer has similar traits.
Dopirak: Totally in agreement with your last point. There are ways in which they might have been a better team all told without Hield because Sheppard is a better defender, but his gravity helped a whole lot and I do think some of the dip in Tyrese Haliburton's shooting numbers came from trying to be a movement shooter and a point guard at the same time and that it became a lot harder for him to do either without Hield around. And I like Spencer a whole lot too. If it came down to it I'd have a hard time passing up Shead because he's just such a tough dude, and I don't think he'd have a problem keeping up with the pace even though Houston didn't play fast. This isn't the same as doing it with the ball in your hand, but Shead tied Reece Beekman for the second-fastest sprint time at the Combine. He's going to be able to move and run as fast as the Pacers would need him to and I don't think decision making would be an issue. But the shooting is one and, ultimately, I'm going to come down on that side here. I say we take Spencer and Bona and call it a day.
Pacers picks: Adem Bona, center, UCLA and Cam Spencer, Connecticut guard
So Ingram, Spencer and Bona. How do we feel like we did here?
Brown: I like it. We added some versatility in Ingram and Spencer and provided another big option with Bona. All three of them are 21 and older, which seems like the direction the Pacers are going for. Bona would probably spend most of the year with the Mad Ants, but Ingram and Spencer could have chances to contribute at some point in the regular season.
