The red wave that washed over Florida in recent years might not be as large as it once seemed, if a new presidential survey is any indication.
Vice President Kamala Harris is within “striking distance” of former President Donald Trump in Florida, according to the pollster behind a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University/WSVN-TV survey of 500 likely voters released Tuesday.
Trump leads Harris by 5 percentage points in the survey, but that’s closer than other recent polls and much less than Gov. Ron DeSantis’ 19-point blowout in 2022. It’s also within the poll’s 4.4% margin of error and another sign of the enthusiasm Harris has generated nationwide within the Democratic Party since she entered the race.
Trump received the support of 47% of those in the USA TODAY/Suffolk/WSVN-TV Florida survey, compared with 42% for Harris and 5% for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., with 5% undecided or refusing to disclose their choice. The poll was conducted by phone from Aug. 7 to Aug. 11.
Once viewed as the nation's largest swing state and fiercely contested during presidential elections, Florida's battleground status increasingly has been in doubt after Trump bested President Joe Biden by 3.3 percentage points in 2020, DeSantis dominated two years later and Democrats fell dramatically behind Republicans in voter registration.
Florida now has 1 million more registered Republicans than Democrats, a tough hurdle for any Democratic candidate to overcome.
"Given those circ*mstances I was surprised that Harris is within striking distance being only 5 points down," said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center.
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Flashing yellow
While not exactly a flashing red warning light for Trump, the survey is a caution sign for anyone who thinks the race is sure to be a blowout in Florida, Paleologos said.
“What was an easy drive through the Sunshine State is drive with caution,” he said, adding that Harris is "still the underdog, but she's a little bit closer than people might expect."
In a bad sign for the GOP nominee, Harris' Florida voters are matching the former Republican president's supporters in enthusiasm, with 89% of each group saying they are very or somewhat excited to vote for their candidate.
A USA TODAY/Suffolk national poll from June found that just 60% of Biden's supporters nationwide were excited to vote for him. Biden dropped out of the race last month and Harris took his place at the top of the Democratic ticket.
Harris also is viewed somewhat more favorably than Biden in Florida. Forty-four percent of voters say they have a favorable opinion of her compared with the president's 39%, though that is also within the poll's margin of error.
Harris has energized the Democratic base since taking over for Biden, raising large sums of money and drawing big crowds at rallies across the country last week.
Trump, meanwhile, has struggled to define his new opponent and is lashing out with personal attacks that some in his party view as counterproductive. He received significant backlash for comments questioning the racial identity of the first Black and Indian American vice president. Florida has a significant population of Black voters.
Trump has a higher favorability rating than both Harris and Biden in Florida, though, at 50%, and his job approval rating during his time as president also is higher than Harris' as vice president.
Trump is losing independent voters in Florida by 7 points in the USA TODAY/Suffolk survey. He lost independents by 11 points to Biden in Florida in 2020, according to exit polls, but easily won the state anyway.
Voices of voters
Independent voter Janie Brookbank, 72, is eager to cast her ballot for Harris. Brookbank is a retired small business owner who was born in Michigan, spent much of her adult life in California and moved to Florida a decade ago, settling in Dunedin. She is active in voter registration with the League of Women Voters.
Brookbank said she was once a registered Republican and admires Republicans such as Sen. Mitt Romney but no longer identifies with the party. She strongly opposes Trump and supported his Democratic opponents in 2016 and 2020.
"He’s mean. He’s cruel. He treats women badly. He lies. He cheats. There is not one cell of that man that I can respect, nothing. He’s abysmal," Brookbank said.
Though not enthusiastic to vote for Biden, Brookbank was prepared to support him to keep Trump away from the White House. She is much more excited about Harris. Never a big fan of the vice president, Brookbank has been impressed with her performance since Biden dropped out.
“She’s a force, she has energy, she can put a little fear into opponents," Brookbank said.
Ocala resident Barbara Oppenheimer, 79, also had harsh words for Trump, saying he is coming across "like a dictator."
She was particularly upset after a mob of Trump supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, to try to overturn the 2020 election results.
“I thought that wasn’t right," said Oppenheimer, a Republican. "He encouraged these people to do it, and that shouldn’t have happened."
Abortion rights also are important to Oppenheimer, and she doesn't believe Trump will protect them. Florida has an amendment on the ballot this year that would put abortion protections in the state Constitution.
Oppenheimer voted for Trump in 2020, saying "I wanted to give him a chance." She plans to vote for Kennedy this time. Harris is "OK," she said, and would make a good president, but she likes the Kennedy family. (Most of Kennedy's relatives have come out against his candidacy.)
Though there still is plenty of anti-Trump sentiment in Florida, the former president also has a strong group of supporters. Retired Clearwater physician David Pittenger, 86, is one of them.
Pittenger cited illegal immigration and inflation as among his biggest concerns and says he likes Trump's approach to those issues. Harris "hasn't done anything," said Pittenger, who moved to Florida in 2010 from Missouri.
"She says she's for the small people, but she hasn't done anything to show she is for the average man."
